Polished-Thermals
0xdafd8cb44f0becb4e7f83c9d9fc9daeb025f2072
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-413.81
Realised
$0.83
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- CELTICS
Celtics vs. Knicks
68 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-24.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on April 12?
67 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.65
- YES
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Leeds United FC?
65 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 13?
60 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.77
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
59 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-15.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13?
57 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.77
- YES
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-13?
54 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-14.67
- YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?
53 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-19.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
53 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-19.08
- ALEJANDRO TABILO
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca
52 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-14.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet$16.24May 26, 12:55 UTC
- REDEEMAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score$8.33May 26, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score$5.06May 15, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.68May 15, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$1.88May 15, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$4.32May 15, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$5.16May 15, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$3.48Apr 16, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$3.50Apr 16, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$3.50Apr 16, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$3.50Apr 16, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?$3.50Apr 16, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMOeiras 3: Max Houkes vs Zdenek Kolar$17.48Apr 16, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$17.00Apr 14, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrandon Nakashima vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5$10.00Apr 14, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYOeiras 3: Max Houkes vs Zdenek Kolar$8.00Apr 14, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca$15.00Apr 14, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$10.00Apr 14, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?$47.93Apr 14, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?$49.25Apr 14, 07:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $15.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 20:28 UTC
- Last active
- May 26, 12:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".