Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-111.28

Realised

$-4.43

Win rate

78 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 78

UP
BNB Up or Down - August 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
25 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026
$0.00
$-3.95
FRANCE
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
20 shares @ 43.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-8.74
UNDER
France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5
13 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - August 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - August 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - August 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.63Aug 16, 20:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.03Aug 16, 20:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.07Aug 16, 20:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.07Aug 16, 18:28 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$1.06Aug 16, 18:22 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.05Aug 16, 18:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.07Aug 16, 18:13 UTC
REDEEMUFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$12.67Aug 16, 04:38 UTC
TRADEBUYUFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$9.79Aug 15, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYUFC 330: Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)$1.05Aug 15, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$1.03Aug 14, 03:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$3.25Aug 6, 19:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$1.07Aug 6, 18:54 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$1.07Aug 6, 18:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$1.06Aug 6, 18:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$1.05Aug 6, 18:46 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$1.07Aug 6, 18:43 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - August 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$3.18Aug 6, 18:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.06Aug 6, 18:13 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - August 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$0.95Aug 6, 18:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 78 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

78 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity64 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry40 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.55
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 4, 14:31 UTC
Last active: Aug 16, 20:50 UTC
Win rate sample: 78 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:20:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data