Favorable-Commuter
0xdb465b694f7beefdbf8d1edfa2035128d4cb56e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$520.85
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$-1.68
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?
87 shares @ 50.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$86.88
$42.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 1?
116 shares @ 40.6¢·now 53.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$61.34
$14.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1?
88 shares @ 54.8¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$53.84
$5.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?
90 shares @ 50.1¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$52.53
$7.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 1?
147 shares @ 40.8¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$52.17
$-7.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 1?
99 shares @ 56.5¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$51.01
$-4.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 1?
132 shares @ 35.5¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$49.59
$2.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 1?
77 shares @ 39.1¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$34.09
$4.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 1?
68 shares @ 44.4¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$30.06
$0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 1?
121 shares @ 33.8¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$29.70
$-11.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?$1.02Jul 1, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?$1.02Jul 1, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 1?$1.03Jul 1, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?$1.02Jul 1, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 1?$1.03Jul 1, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 1?$1.03Jul 1, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1?$1.03Jul 1, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?$1.02Jul 1, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?$1.02Jul 1, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 2?$1.03Jul 1, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1?$1.03Jul 1, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1?$1.02Jul 1, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?$1.02Jul 1, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30?$6.63Jul 1, 03:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 03:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 03:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.