Even-Survey
0xdb4eb99eafa8c8842cd879d5de9d0e60d54147f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$243.67
Total PnL
$-90.31
Realised
$100.31
Win rate
42%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
102 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.96
$-0.49
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 14.9¢·now 12.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.03
$-3.28
- YES
Deel IPO before 2027?
354 shares @ 4.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.91
$1.01
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
100 shares @ 17.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$15.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
103 shares @ 14.6¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$14.90
$-0.10
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
100 shares @ 13.6¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$13.50
$-0.10
- YES
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
112 shares @ 11.7¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.75
$-1.29
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?
120 shares @ 9.8¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.40
$-0.36
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
247 shares @ 5.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.12
$-1.73
- YES
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
66 shares @ 14.6¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.51
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$0.18Jul 29, 02:06 UTC
- REWARD$7.53Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMistral AI IPO before 2027?$1.30Jul 28, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$3.10Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?$6.00Jul 28, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?$1.65Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?$6.35Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$7.13Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$7.13Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic be acquired before 2027?$4.59Jul 28, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$7.43Jul 28, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 28, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$2.60Jul 28, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$2.68Jul 28, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$1.01Jul 28, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?$3.77Jul 28, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 28, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?$3.10Jul 28, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$7.16Jul 28, 01:48 UTC
- REWARD$9.94Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 12:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.