Adored-Monopoly
0xdb5b512f97df142c82d04dbd6336ab42dea84995
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$669.60
Total PnL
$-308.21
Realised
$-54.90
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?
321 shares @ 41.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$245.60
$111.70
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
200 shares @ 64.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$165.00
$37.00
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of July 20 2026?
150 shares @ 53.4¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$123.00
$42.90
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?
223 shares @ 32.4¢·now 32.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$71.36
$-0.79
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?
101 shares @ 58.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$64.64
$6.06
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026?
360 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-31.19
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of July 6 2026?
263 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-105.08
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of June 29 2026?
245 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-54.85
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026?
220 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.34
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?
213 shares @ 40.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-87.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$32.46Jul 20, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$14.70Jul 20, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$10.00Jul 20, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$27.69Jul 20, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$59.56Jul 20, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$26.78Jul 20, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$72.00Jul 20, 12:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$53.58Jul 20, 12:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$53.58Jul 20, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$28.36Jul 20, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$67.48Jul 20, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$41.66Jul 20, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$66.35Jul 20, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?$43.98Jul 20, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$48.00Jul 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$48.00Jul 20, 01:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of July 20 2026?$67.68Jul 20, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$64.92Jul 20, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$150.57Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$64.92Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $54.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 16:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.