0xdb5c55d45b220481764c16888933be5fee47e2a0
0xdb5c55d45b220481764c16888933be5fee47e2a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.47
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
1%
152 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
211 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.16
$-0.95
- YES
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
211 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.74
$-1.37
- YES
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
211 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.53
$-1.58
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?
9 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.31
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
711 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.11
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
489 shares @ 29.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-144.99
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?
364 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?
364 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
337 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-90.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
317 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-62.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$11.11Mar 9, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?$1.31Mar 9, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9?$0.46Mar 9, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?$23.75Mar 9, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?$0.42Mar 9, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?$3.80Mar 9, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$0.98Mar 9, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.73Mar 9, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$2.74Mar 9, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?$1.75Mar 9, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?$1.20Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$6.26Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.96Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament?$1.60Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.00Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.68Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.82Mar 9, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.10Mar 9, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 10?$0.08Mar 9, 12:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 152 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
152 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 12:06 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 152 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.