Colorful-Sandwich
0xdb76f76afed6c80e7f6a2fb33bcbdce15e7b8a2b
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$131.59
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of August 10 2026?
118 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$118.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
14 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.47
$-0.07
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3?
746 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-191.15
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12?
724 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-184.57
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20?
691 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-176.28
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3?
664 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-169.19
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1?
577 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.73
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 12?
571 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-145.41
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on February 25?
567 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.70
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 7?
565 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of August 10 2026?$118.00Aug 14, 11:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of July 6 2026?$118.12Aug 14, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of July 6 2026?$118.00Jul 10, 09:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?$117.12Jul 10, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?$117.00Jun 30, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMRoland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka$9.65Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $1.60 in May?$96.91Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka$7.86Jun 1, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo$3.87Jun 1, 07:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on May 30?$11.42Jun 1, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$11.67Jun 1, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.60 in May?$96.82May 31, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$11.66May 31, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$108.46May 31, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$108.05May 30, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$107.89May 30, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$108.00May 30, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?$108.17May 30, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?$107.77May 29, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on May 30?$11.40May 29, 12:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $95.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 11:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.