Wallet digest

Activity score

65/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$102.72

Total PnL

$-137.88

Realised

$-10.09

Win rate

75%

4 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 20

NO
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
25 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$25.00
$4.00
NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
22 shares @ 94.6¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$21.11
$0.30
NO
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
23 shares @ 89.1¢·now 90.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026
$20.78
$0.29
NO
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
21 shares @ 91.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$19.83
$0.66
NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?
16 shares @ 93.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$16.00
$1.01
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
149 shares @ 30.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025
$0.00
$-45.58
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
95 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025
$0.00
$-24.62
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
60 shares @ 50.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025
$0.00
$-30.34
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
53 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 29, 2025
$0.00
$-16.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
19 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 29, 2025
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:19 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

22/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

75% win rate over 4 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

review

4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity29 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence13 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry25 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 8, 00:12 UTC
Last active: Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 4 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:17:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data