Distinct-Curd-High
0xdc15c170015bb7fa3bda49ae394341284877cca6
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$1.8K
Win rate
50%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?
218 shares @ 86.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$217.24
$29.60
- YES
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?
202 shares @ 37.4¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$197.74
$122.27
- NO
Situational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31?
104 shares @ 80.1¢·now 97.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$100.98
$17.66
- NO
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?
96 shares @ 68.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$95.81
$30.21
- NO
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?
96 shares @ 77.6¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.20
$16.66
- NO
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
86 shares @ 58.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$80.41
$29.93
- NO
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
62 shares @ 33.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$60.64
$39.84
- YES
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
61 shares @ 18.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$53.29
$42.33
- YES
James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
68 shares @ 68.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.85
$-2.38
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
85 shares @ 63.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$22.52
$-31.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$46.31Aug 18, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$193.00Aug 14, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1.36Aug 12, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.01Aug 12, 18:04 UTC
- REWARD$718.63Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$2.00Aug 7, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb (ABNB) Q2 gross booking value be above $26.7B?$40.00Aug 6, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$56.00Aug 6, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?$165.17Aug 5, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?$28.00Aug 4, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?$24.00Aug 3, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?$16.00Aug 3, 22:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$24.00Aug 3, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "White House" during President Curtis E2 S1?$33.00Aug 3, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?$3.63Aug 2, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?$28.00Aug 2, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$1.17Aug 1, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 1?$88.00Aug 1, 15:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 31?$22.00Aug 1, 11:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 31?$32.00Aug 1, 10:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
34 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $5.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 00:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 18:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.