Brown-Object
0xdc3117b4fa8ef91845fb1ab100ed91bcb9433fe8
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$265.70
Total PnL
$-144.79
Realised
$-77.65
Win rate
28%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
77 shares @ 71.8¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$48.28
$-7.17
- YES
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 70.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.60
$0.00
- YES
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
37 shares @ 40.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.56
$-2.44
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.90
$-0.10
- YES
Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026?
40 shares @ 61.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$11.80
$-12.60
- NO
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
20 shares @ 66.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$11.50
$-1.70
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
20 shares @ 62.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$9.90
$-2.50
- NO
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$9.30
$-0.30
- YES
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
22 shares @ 42.9¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.27
$-0.08
- YES
Will T-Mobile (TMUS) Q2 total service revenues be above $19.2B?
30 shares @ 46.7¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$8.88
$-5.17
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$9.40Jul 22, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$10.20Jul 22, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$13.20Jul 22, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 23?$2.26Jul 22, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping by July 24?$0.00Jul 22, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?$1.38Jul 22, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$12.60Jul 22, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?$3.00Jul 22, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?$9.00Jul 22, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$8.20Jul 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?$12.50Jul 22, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 23?$8.60Jul 22, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$8.40Jul 22, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?$1.60Jul 22, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$9.60Jul 22, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill magic Qualify to The 2026 Blast Bounty Season 2 Online Stage 2?$6.40Jul 22, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill magic Qualify to The 2026 Blast Bounty Season 2 Online Stage 2?$8.20Jul 22, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$11.00Jul 22, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?$2.97Jul 22, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 23?$1.98Jul 22, 05:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
65/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 22:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 08:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.