Major-Click
0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$190.3K
Total PnL
$10.6K
Realised
$5.9K
Win rate
92%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
50000 shares @ 94.9¢·now 94.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$47.5K
$0.35
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
31315 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.3K
$434.33
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
30000 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.0K
$578.58
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
15000 shares @ 95.1¢·now 96.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$14.5K
$232.51
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
15000 shares @ 87.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.2K
$1.1K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
15000 shares @ 87.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.7K
$662.39
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
10000 shares @ 76.1¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.0K
$1.4K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
5000 shares @ 88.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.7K
$275.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
4428 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.4K
$6.64
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
4321 shares @ 97.4¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.2K
$8.77
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$61.94Jul 30, 17:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$19.07Jul 30, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$3.0KJul 30, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$48.13Jul 30, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$93.03Jul 30, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$111.00Jul 30, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$60.94Jul 30, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$4.93Jul 30, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$120.54Jul 30, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$197.25Jul 30, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$197.40Jul 30, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$493.50Jul 30, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$139.81Jul 30, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$105.29Jul 30, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$126.77Jul 30, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$130.53Jul 30, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$102.39Jul 30, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$119.90Jul 30, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$209.99Jul 30, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$789.70Jul 30, 14:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$9.6K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.8K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 17:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.