Serious-Counselling
0xdc4f84030a470098de558da31d203b6ca202cf46
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-309.85
Realised
$12.76
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 16?
506 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-12.76
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 17?
282 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.20
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 18?
275 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19?
258 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.06
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on March 16?
208 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-19.07
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 23?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 17?
200 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will XRP reach $1.50 on March 19?
118 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 22?
115 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
- YES
Will Solana reach $100 on March 16?
106 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 28?$0.08Mar 28, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 28?$0.10Mar 28, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 28?$0.11Mar 28, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?$1.10Mar 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 28?$0.09Mar 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 28?$0.50Mar 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 28?$0.08Mar 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 28?$0.07Mar 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 28?$0.17Mar 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on March 28?$0.04Mar 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.30 on March 28?$0.15Mar 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 28?$0.59Mar 28, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 28?$0.33Mar 28, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 28?$0.25Mar 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 28?$0.09Mar 28, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 28?$0.28Mar 28, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on March 28?$0.18Mar 28, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 28?$0.03Mar 28, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 25?$0.35Mar 25, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 25?$0.09Mar 25, 23:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 01:09 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 20:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.