Writhing-Fallingout
0xdc6040811f3acd6575224c2eb77e557549fd997c
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.4K
Realised
$307.54
Win rate
67%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
2085 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-45.74
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?
2081 shares @ 40.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-848.51
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
1998 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- GRIZZLIES
Grizzlies vs. Lakers
1856 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-320.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?
1643 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-4.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?
1551 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-89.10
- JAZZ
Jazz vs. Clippers
1528 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NUGGETS
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers
962 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-161.72
- HEAT
Heat vs. Warriors
927 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-140.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$12.53Jul 1, 18:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$12.24Jul 1, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$6.21Jul 1, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-01?$6.37Jul 1, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-01?$6.01Jul 1, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?$6.04Jul 1, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?$12.18Jul 1, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?$7.16Jul 1, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?$40.60Jul 1, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?$40.74Jul 1, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win on 2026-06-30?$86.50Jul 1, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-30?$79.86Jul 1, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$1.05Jun 11, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$2.08Jun 11, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$10.30Jun 11, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$20.18Jun 11, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$4.39Jun 11, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$10.40Jun 11, 03:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$0.00Jun 11, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$35.86Jun 11, 03:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $28.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 03:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 18:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.