Outrageous-Embossing
0xdce1375b326f9367d4f24f553640c231b333f25f
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
143
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.3K
Realised
$57.83
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 143- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 31?
31000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 31?
13035 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.04
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Solana dip to $90 in January?
9151 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-513.30
- YES
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March?
8019 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-35.46
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
7803 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-34.83
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 31?
2366 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.17
- YES
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?
2200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 1?
1946 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
1536 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-74.94
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$3.24Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.58Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$5.23Jun 17, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$4.25Jun 17, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$10.63Jun 17, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$21.06Jun 17, 09:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$0.01Jun 17, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.07Jun 17, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$5.32Jun 17, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$10.62Jun 17, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$19.39Jun 17, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$10.38Jun 17, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$10.59Jun 17, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$12.62Jun 17, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.98Jun 17, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$10.57Jun 17, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$51.95Jun 17, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.14Jun 17, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$0.01Jun 17, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$12.64Jun 17, 09:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $10.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 08:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.