Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.7K

Realised

$-2.7K

Win rate

199 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
904 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-243.17
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
279 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-78.55
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
191 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026
$0.00
$-55.47
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
167 shares @ 27.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026
$0.00
$-46.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
167 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-49.07
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
138 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-38.93
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
125 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-35.51
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
125 shares @ 30.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-38.09
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
117 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$0.00
$-55.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
111 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-34.43

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$57.04Aug 10, 12:21 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$1.94May 12, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.00May 11, 14:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.00May 11, 14:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.00May 11, 14:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$15.16May 11, 14:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$0.05May 11, 11:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$0.02May 11, 11:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$0.06May 11, 11:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$0.20May 11, 11:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.50May 11, 11:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$40.66May 11, 11:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$1.58May 11, 11:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.02May 11, 11:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$9.65May 11, 11:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$1.40May 11, 11:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$0.15May 11, 10:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$0.80May 11, 10:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$3.39May 11, 10:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$16.60May 11, 10:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 199 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

199 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity54 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $5.12
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 11, 10:19 UTC
Last active: Aug 10, 12:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 199 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:54:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data