Wallet digest

Activity score

35/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-21.7K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
493 shares @ 39.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026
$0.00
$-194.34
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
492 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-280.86
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
492 shares @ 43.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026
$0.00
$-216.27
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
446 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026
$0.00
$-245.49
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
400 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-24.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
400 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-240.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
400 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026
$0.00
$-140.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
400 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
400 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026
$0.00
$-156.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$3.13Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.58Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.74Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.40Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.60Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.97Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.01Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.76May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.15May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.58May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.57May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.51May 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.22May 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.31May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.37May 23, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.17May 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.21May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.50May 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$17.18May 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$46.73May 17, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 15, 00:30 UTC
Last active: Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:28:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data