Superficial-Dedication
0xdd88733bdc5b92e0f406c442299b9309957395ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-89.4K
Realised
$21.8K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
120000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-60.0K
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 30?
110643 shares @ 45.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.8K
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?
65820 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-131.64
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?
40000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
12237 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-61.18
- NO
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
700 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-42.00
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting?
235 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?$106.4KApr 1, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?$6.4KMar 25, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?$99.9KMar 25, 05:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 20, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 20, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$40.0KMar 19, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$60.0KMar 19, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$59.8KMar 16, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$39.8KMar 16, 08:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$100.0KMar 15, 04:38 UTC
- SPLITWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$100.0KMar 15, 04:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$20.0KMar 14, 20:29 UTC
- SPLITWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$20.0KMar 14, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$99.9KMar 14, 20:27 UTC
- SPLITWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$100.0KMar 14, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$99.9KMar 14, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$2.38Mar 5, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$2.45Mar 5, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$2.51Mar 5, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$0.21Mar 5, 09:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $10.4K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 06:30 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 16:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.