Murky-Explorer
0xdd89ebe845d8828cf81b5a0f9e0b8aa6b0e34f5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$81.46
Total PnL
$-113.25
Realised
$-0.54
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 93.0¢·now 90.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$36.24
$-0.98
- YES
Will Boeing say "Customer" 3+ times during earnings call?
20 shares @ 95.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$19.96
$0.88
- NO
Will Procter & Gamble say "Toilet paper" during earnings call?
20 shares @ 92.9¢·now 78.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$15.67
$-2.91
- YES
Will MrBeast say "Race" during his next gaming YouTube video?
50 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$1.50
$0.00
- YES
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video?
20 shares @ 2.3¢·now 7.3¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$1.46
$1.00
- NO
Will Amazon say "International" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.35
$-0.15
- NO
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
40 shares @ 3.1¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$1.02
$-0.22
- NO
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
50 shares @ 5.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.60
$-1.90
- YES
Will Trump’s remarks not air?
20 shares @ 5.2¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.45
- NO
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
50 shares @ 5.1¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.50
$-2.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$0.10Jul 28, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$0.90Jul 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 28?$16.69Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$17.46Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Gay" during Fox & Friends appearance?$18.55Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$47.78Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$47.55Jul 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Gay" during Fox & Friends appearance?$18.00Jul 28, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$17.80Jul 28, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$0.14Jul 28, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal say "Merchant" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.18Jul 28, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on July 28?$0.61Jul 28, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on July 28?$0.21Jul 28, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$18.40Jul 28, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 28?$9.00Jul 28, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 28?$9.00Jul 28, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$18.82Jul 28, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Monkey" in July?$0.33Jul 28, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$1.44Jul 28, 11:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$0.44Jul 28, 11:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.