Incomparable-Escalator
0xddba38bd99cefc2b9f862a673ed187e25fdde638
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
186
Open notional
$87.92
Total PnL
$-126.41
Realised
$39.15
Win rate
85%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 186- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C or higher on August 1?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 1?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.00
$0.99
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 2?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$4.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 1?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 2?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$4.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 1?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.97
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 1?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.97
$-0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 1?
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.83
$-0.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 2?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$4.77
$-0.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 1?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.77
$-0.18
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 2?$5.07Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 2?$5.08Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on August 2?$5.08Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 2?$5.08Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 2?$5.07Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 2?$5.07Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 2?$5.07Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on August 2?$5.08Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 2?$5.07Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Beijing on August 2?$5.08Jul 31, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 2?$4.06Jul 31, 11:56 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:52 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Wellington on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 2?$5.00Jul 31, 11:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 31?$7.38Jul 31, 11:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 31?$7.86Jul 31, 11:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $3.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 11:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 11:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.