0xde0fac2d76e345205aace9e62be24625b2b657c1
0xde0fac2d76e345205aace9e62be24625b2b657c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.50
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$554.95
Win rate
31%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.50
$-11.50
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 27?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
10113 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-41.19
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
7500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
5659 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-41.38
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
4750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
3179 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-31.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.06Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$4.21Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$4.25Jul 22, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$4.24Jul 22, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$3.20Jul 22, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$3.20Jul 22, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$4.29Jul 22, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$18.15Jul 22, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$6.26Jul 22, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.07Jul 22, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.06Jul 22, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$6.37Jul 22, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.18Jul 22, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$3.16Jul 22, 20:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$2.33Jul 22, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$16.34Jul 22, 19:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
36 closed markets, 31% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 19:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 20:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.