Favorable-Deviance
0xde5d3bc25163af25817c39ee7e48d895181d54de
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$6.59
Total PnL
$-10.71
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$5.26
$3.26
- YES
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?
1 shares @ 75.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$1.32
$0.32
- YES
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?
8 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US stagflation in 2025?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US recession in 2025?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?$1.00Jul 10, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?$1.00Jul 10, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?$2.00Jul 10, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?$4.00Jul 9, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?$1.00Jul 9, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?$1.00Jul 9, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMFordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$0.00Jul 2, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Iran on June 26?$0.00Jul 2, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?$0.00Jul 2, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Iran on June 25?$0.00Jul 2, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Congress pass a bill limiting Trump's tariffs before July? $0.00Jul 2, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$1.74Jul 2, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?$4.35Jul 2, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?$3.45Jul 2, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$0.00Jul 2, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$0.00Jul 2, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?$0.00Jul 2, 08:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?$20.49Jul 2, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Iran on June 26?$1.00Jun 24, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Iran on June 25?$1.00Jun 24, 15:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 14:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 15:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".