Wallet profile

Well-Made-Birch

0xde6e74aea7fd9a9866e801489feb489f21e20169

activity 60/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

60/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-136.3K

Realised

$13.6K

Win rate

74%

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$5.1K

Trades

1

Buy share

0%

Window

May 22, 15:30 UTC → May 22, 15:22 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

77/100
read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

74% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

39 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

39 closed markets, 74% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

0%

Sample

low

1 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

$5.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri100% of recorded volume$5.1K

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry46 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
39
Avg trade size
$250.84
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 22, 02:41 UTC
Last active
Jun 26, 15:40 UTC
Win rate sample
39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 21:45:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data