Red-Stage
0xde9cacc2cc9822ddaa3e8dda96ff497084c4e014
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$-61.98
Win rate
50%
66 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?
1751 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-35.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 11?
860 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-53.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 22?
760 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-75.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19?
464 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-11.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19?
454 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-45.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 8?
452 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-23.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 14?
451 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-44.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 6?
398 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-11.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14?
383 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-15.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8?
340 shares @ 51.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-175.65
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$2.98Jun 23, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$15.39Jun 23, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$21.49Jun 23, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$7.21Jun 23, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$9.68Jun 23, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$9.83Jun 23, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$0.69Jun 23, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$19.50Jun 23, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22?$25.73Jun 22, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?$8.75Jun 22, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?$16.40Jun 22, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22?$2.12Jun 22, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22?$14.26Jun 22, 03:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22?$13.54Jun 22, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22?$29.69Jun 22, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22?$43.73Jun 22, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22?$1.74Jun 22, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 22?$25.70Jun 22, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22?$32.54Jun 22, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20?$0.03Jun 20, 22:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 66 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
66 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $19.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 13:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 15:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 66 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.