Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-662.02

Realised

$-32.29

Win rate

94 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 95

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
16411 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-164.09
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
222 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
133 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
131 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-9.71
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
126 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
122 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
112 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$1.04Jul 16, 06:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.05Jul 16, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.05Jul 16, 06:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$2.10Jul 16, 06:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$5.31Jul 16, 06:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.32Jul 16, 06:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$5.34Jul 16, 06:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$5.32Jul 16, 06:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$5.32Jul 16, 05:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.32Jul 16, 05:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$5.33Jul 16, 05:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.31Jul 15, 09:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$5.31Jul 15, 09:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$5.31Jul 15, 09:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$5.23Jul 15, 09:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$5.19Jul 15, 09:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$5.27Jul 15, 09:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.33Jul 15, 09:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.24Jul 15, 09:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$80.86Jul 14, 08:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 94 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

94 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $3.70
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 12, 06:00 UTC
Last active: Jul 16, 06:40 UTC
Win rate sample: 94 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:56:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data