Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

143

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-862.62

Realised

$-37.99

Win rate

143 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 143

UNDER
Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 3.5
1880 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
1297 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-12.97
UNDER
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5
851 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-8.51
UNDER
Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 2.5
402 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-4.02
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 16, 5PM ET
277 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-2.77
YES
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?
225 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-4.72
YES
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
215 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-4.72
OVER
Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: O/U 4.5
188 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.88
OVER
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995: O/U 2.5
188 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.88
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8AM ET
186 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.86

Recent activity

TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?$7.75Jul 19, 18:54 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$7.50Jul 19, 18:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$0.26Jul 19, 18:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$2.29Jul 19, 18:50 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$4.99Jul 19, 18:38 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$4.50Jul 19, 18:37 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$7.74Jul 19, 18:34 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$4.50Jul 19, 18:30 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?$4.50Jul 19, 18:28 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?$5.49Jul 19, 18:27 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?$4.50Jul 19, 18:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 17:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$12.03Jul 19, 17:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$3.99Jul 19, 17:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$3.23Jul 19, 16:58 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$0.22Jul 19, 16:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$2.11Jul 19, 16:51 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$5.12Jul 19, 16:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$2.15Jul 19, 16:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$2.16Jul 19, 16:42 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 143 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

143 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry37 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $4.28
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 19, 14:28 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 18:54 UTC
Win rate sample: 143 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:32:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data