Unfortunate-Shock
0xdef18d0c3dd66903ba5db4617681ba81f1b03783
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$224.16
Total PnL
$-105.94
Realised
$0.44
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
34 shares @ 69.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$34.41
$10.53
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
26 shares @ 95.6¢·now 93.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.48
$-0.49
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 94.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$18.67
$-0.08
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?
16 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.11
$0.13
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
16 shares @ 93.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.54
$-0.45
- YES
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
16 shares @ 94.7¢·now 90.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$14.29
$-0.70
- YES
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.41
$0.42
- YES
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
11 shares @ 94.5¢·now 94.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$9.96
$-0.03
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
10 shares @ 94.6¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.00
$0.01
- VILIUS GAUBAS
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh
5 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$5.31
$0.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23?$5.00Jun 22, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Alves$5.08Jun 22, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Alves$4.99Jun 22, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh$4.89Jun 22, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh$4.99Jun 22, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh$5.00Jun 22, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$3.76Jun 22, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina leading at halftime?$5.16Jun 22, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina leading at halftime?$5.10Jun 22, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina leading at halftime?$4.99Jun 22, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina leading at halftime?$4.99Jun 22, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$4.99Jun 22, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$4.99Jun 22, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.16Jun 22, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.10Jun 22, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.92Jun 22, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jun 22, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$3.84Jun 22, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.38Jun 22, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$3.46Jun 22, 14:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 03:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 19:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.