Fearful-Cuckoo
0xdef996540909c99b4ef6971bb9690377d4ce964c
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$114.65
Total PnL
$-265.90
Realised
$-8.94
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 23?
78 shares @ 10.4¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$30.29
$22.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?
44 shares @ 21.2¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$12.90
$3.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 23?
52 shares @ 6.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$9.39
$6.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 24?
35 shares @ 10.7¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$7.63
$3.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 23?
41 shares @ 9.2¢·now 14.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$6.15
$2.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 23?
21 shares @ 25.1¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.65
$0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 23?
13 shares @ 17.6¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.62
$3.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?
33 shares @ 25.7¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$4.77
$-3.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 24?
25 shares @ 23.4¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.39
$-1.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 24?
64 shares @ 11.1¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.19
$-2.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 24?$0.22Jul 23, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?$0.10Jul 23, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 23?$0.91Jul 23, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?$0.40Jul 23, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 23?$0.13Jul 23, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 23?$0.06Jul 23, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 23?$1.30Jul 23, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?$0.36Jul 23, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?$1.14Jul 23, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 24?$0.20Jul 23, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 24?$1.30Jul 23, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 24?$1.10Jul 23, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 23?$1.35Jul 23, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 24?$1.40Jul 23, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 24?$0.24Jul 23, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?$0.22Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?$0.24Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?$0.49Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 23?$0.49Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 24?$0.11Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 21:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 04:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.