Muted-Craftsman
0xdefec4bcdd466593d4c12e3f7d29cc4d99f0efae
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$-2.4K
Win rate
0%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
1931 shares @ 67.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
989 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-480.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
963 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-308.23
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
924 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
593 shares @ 65.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-388.54
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
547 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-178.96
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
535 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-152.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
377 shares @ 61.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-230.38
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
286 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
156 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.25Aug 17, 01:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$13.03Aug 17, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$8.60Aug 17, 00:46 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$4.27Aug 17, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$2.13Aug 17, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$20.72Aug 17, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.05Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$2.62Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$8.75Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$0.61Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$4.98Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$4.45Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$0.01Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$0.76Aug 17, 00:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $3.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 23:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 01:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.