Cheerful-Ephemera
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$1.2M
Total PnL
$255.0K
Realised
$13.1K
Win rate
73%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
483769 shares @ 39.6¢·now 86.8¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$419.7K
$228.2K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
389611 shares @ 69.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$360.4K
$88.2K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
105655 shares @ 72.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.5K
$17.3K
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
64924 shares @ 76.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.2K
$6.6K
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
36984 shares @ 95.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$36.6K
$1.2K
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
22495 shares @ 83.9¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.0K
$132.81
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
20308 shares @ 90.9¢·now 92.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$18.7K
$214.47
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
18181 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$17.8K
$751.34
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
20087 shares @ 81.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.6K
$303.15
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
16630 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$16.1K
$-13.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$115.00Jun 15, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$465.93Jun 15, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$140.00Jun 15, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$9.60Jun 15, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$856.67Jun 15, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$11.50Jun 15, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$18.53Jun 15, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by June 30?$4.9KJun 15, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$57.50Jun 15, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$4.72Jun 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$3.54Jun 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$11.5KJun 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$5.2KJun 15, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$32.68Jun 15, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$575.00Jun 15, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$575.00Jun 15, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$410.41Jun 15, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$5.92Jun 15, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$82.82Jun 15, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$4.60Jun 15, 07:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$153.8K
Trades
11
Buy share
32%
Window
May 23, 23:50 UTC → Jun 14, 21:17 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$11.9K@53¢Jun 14, 21:17 UTC
- BUYWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?$9.7K@97¢Jun 10, 22:45 UTC
- SELLIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$20.0K@100¢Jun 7, 22:51 UTC
- BUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$9.8K@98¢Jun 4, 15:18 UTC
- BUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$10.6K@94¢Jun 4, 03:35 UTC
- SELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$9.7K@98¢Jun 2, 22:48 UTC
- SELLUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?$23.2K@100¢Jun 1, 22:52 UTC
- SELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$28.5K@95¢Jun 1, 21:47 UTC
- BUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$7.9K@79¢May 26, 03:40 UTC
- SELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$9.1K@91¢May 24, 14:32 UTC
- SELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$13.7K@91¢May 23, 23:40 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$21.5K
2 trades
30d volume
$153.8K
11 trades
Buy share
32%
Sample
medium
11 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$39.0K · 25% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $644.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 06:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 07:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.