Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.1K

Realised

$-66.10

Win rate

59 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
98 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-19.14
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
15 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-7.77
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
15 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-7.20
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
15 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-7.05
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
15 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-7.42
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-7.50

Recent activity

TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$1.45Aug 22, 15:26 UTC
REDEEMValorant: Team Liquid vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Map 1 Winner$5.11Aug 22, 15:18 UTC
TRADEBUYMinnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres$2.31Aug 22, 14:28 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: Team Liquid vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Map 1 Winner$2.31Aug 22, 13:44 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stage$2.41Aug 22, 13:43 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Wrexham AFC win on 2026-08-22?$2.51Aug 22, 13:42 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)$2.11Aug 22, 13:42 UTC
TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5)$2.51Aug 22, 13:40 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner$1.04Aug 22, 13:38 UTC
TRADEBUYDota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner$1.71Aug 22, 13:36 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?$1.81Aug 22, 12:13 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner$2.06Aug 22, 12:12 UTC
TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs$1.04Aug 22, 12:08 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner$1.76Aug 22, 11:53 UTC
TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs$1.20Aug 22, 11:52 UTC
REDEEMPortland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo$10.23Aug 22, 04:54 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner$2.31Aug 22, 02:33 UTC
REDEEMWashington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5$10.20Aug 22, 02:25 UTC
TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5$2.61Aug 21, 18:40 UTC
TRADEBUYPortland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo$2.26Aug 21, 18:33 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

68/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 59 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

59 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $2.18
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 18, 14:24 UTC
Last active: Aug 22, 15:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 59 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:53:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data