Honest-Hardship
0xdf6d90962a7c0d8969bfb78fd824d9976b4ab582
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$47.77
Total PnL
$-17.09
Realised
$7.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
11 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$10.56
$0.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 28?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$10.41
$0.52
- NO
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
8 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.04
$0.04
- NO
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
10 shares @ 87.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.66
$-1.34
- NO
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
6 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$5.71
$-0.06
- YES
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 92.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.40
$0.40
- NO
Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 19?
60 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 19, 2025$0.00
$-6.60
- YES
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $80m and $85m?
40 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025$0.00
$-6.40
- NO
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?
40 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025$0.00
$-10.40
- YES
Will Jean Castex be the next Prime Minister of France?
20 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 28?$9.91Apr 27, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?$8.00Apr 27, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$10.00Apr 27, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?$4.31Apr 27, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.94Apr 27, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast say "Donated" or "Raised" during his next YouTube video?$6.06Apr 27, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?$9.45Apr 27, 10:19 UTC
- REWARD$0.33Mar 15, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$0.45Mar 14, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$0.43Mar 13, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$0.45Mar 12, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$0.44Mar 11, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$0.45Mar 10, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$0.47Mar 9, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$0.13Mar 8, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?$4.26Mar 7, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?$5.00Mar 7, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Donated" or "Raised" during his next YouTube video?$6.00Mar 7, 17:28 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 4.20 released by February 14?$0.00Mar 7, 17:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?$4.01Mar 7, 17:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $6.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 22, 20:27 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 11:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.