Limp-Drawer
0xdf903ee52261f475ee5a02f9189acdb7cdba41f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-277.37
Realised
$4.0K
Win rate
87%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
825 shares @ 54.5¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$623.18
$173.18
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
849 shares @ 23.5¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$344.04
$144.03
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
347 shares @ 72.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$303.53
$53.53
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?
708 shares @ 17.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$173.39
$48.39
- NO
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?
209 shares @ 70.3¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$167.50
$20.25
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
275 shares @ 36.4¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$159.46
$59.46
- YES
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
642 shares @ 7.8¢·now 10.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.74
$16.74
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?
4206 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$44.16
$-20.26
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
750 shares @ 6.7¢·now 5.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$43.87
$-6.33
- NO
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
29 shares @ 83.6¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.54
$3.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?$0.38Jul 29, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$63.21Jul 29, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?$25.00Jul 29, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$10.00Jul 29, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$50.00Jul 29, 12:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$119.56Jul 29, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$26.00Jul 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$51.90Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$268.14Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$50.00Jul 28, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$250.00Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$220.39Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$300.00Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$200.00Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$250.00Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$0.59Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$1.99Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$0.08Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$0.40Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
$9.6K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $68.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 19:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 15:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.