Only-Capitulation
0xdfc924b79b5e68749eb0feeddd21019510fc975d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.5K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$0.96Nov 26, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$0.96Nov 26, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?$0.99Nov 26, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%?$1.00Nov 26, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?$1.00Nov 26, 09:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by October 31?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on October 30?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or below on October 30?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $270 October 27-November 2?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Siversk by October 31?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,900 October 27-November 2?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5000 in October?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $3.30 October 27-November 2?$1.00Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?$1.01Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$1.01Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMLecornu out as French PM by October 31?$1.01Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$1.01Nov 11, 02:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $250.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 30, 05:38 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 26, 09:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.