Past-Hovercraft
0xdfcf6f6485aa74103257e566c098c6b5d866e106
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
143
Open notional
$9.24
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-16.18
Win rate
80%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 143- YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$2.92
$-0.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?
7 shares @ 40.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$2.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 4?
6 shares @ 48.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$2.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
119 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.89
$-4.11
- YES
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
24 shares @ 8.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.61
$-1.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 4?
9 shares @ 34.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 4?
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19?
604 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
421 shares @ 65.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-275.37
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$107.61Jul 4, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$30.02Jul 4, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$10.02Jul 4, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$5.14Jul 4, 06:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$96.75Jul 4, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$5.13Jul 4, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$30.86Jul 4, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$30.13Jul 4, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$60.31Jul 4, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$3.94Jul 4, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.46Jul 4, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$10.40Jul 4, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$343.31Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$40.38Jul 4, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$50.73Jul 4, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$10.27Jul 4, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.21Jul 4, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$10.23Jul 4, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$51.65Jul 4, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.16Jul 4, 06:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $22.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 05:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 06:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.