Past-Hovercraft
0xdfcf6f6485aa74103257e566c098c6b5d866e106
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$-161.47
Win rate
5%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19?
604 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
421 shares @ 65.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-275.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
375 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 18?
360 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18?
303 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
241 shares @ 70.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-170.00
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
235 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
228 shares @ 83.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-190.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
224 shares @ 78.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-175.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
190 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$2.13Aug 12, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.04Aug 12, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.05Aug 12, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.06Aug 12, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$4.98Aug 12, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.05Aug 12, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.04Aug 12, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.07Aug 12, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.05Aug 12, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$2.08Aug 12, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$1.07Aug 12, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$1.04Aug 12, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$1.05Aug 12, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.39Aug 12, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.02Aug 12, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.06Aug 12, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$7.49Aug 12, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$5.16Aug 12, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$1.03Aug 12, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$2.10Aug 12, 05:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
200 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 18:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 05:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.