Stable-Carbon
0xdff9e7cb8161d76905845e2079d2b2443e27f85d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$107.41
Total PnL
$-321.38
Realised
$-0.89
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
20 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.04
$0.13
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.84
$-0.06
- NO
Israeli forces enter Tyre by July 31?
20 shares @ 99.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.75
$-0.16
- NO
Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.71
$-0.19
- NO
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?
21 shares @ 96.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$18.92
$-0.98
- YES
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
27 shares @ 72.9¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.14
$-10.76
- YES
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?
295 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?
276 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-14.20
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?
166 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?
162 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$22.10Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$20.09Jul 28, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$20.00Jul 26, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 25, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?$20.00Jul 25, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$19.56Jul 25, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$74.74Jul 24, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?$20.00Jul 24, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 140-159 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$19.99Jul 23, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$20.09Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 140-159 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$19.99Jul 23, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli forces enter Tyre by July 31?$20.00Jul 23, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$20.10Jul 22, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$20.09Jul 22, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 22, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$20.51Jul 21, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$20.02Jul 21, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces enter Tyre by July 31?$5.17Jul 21, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$17.93Jul 21, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$79.12Jul 21, 12:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $19.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 23:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.