Disastrous-Bend
0xe000e1dd06d3d17dc943dc9215a2e166efd5cbb1
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
140
Open notional
$9.0K
Total PnL
$-6.4K
Realised
$-87.83
Win rate
59%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 140- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
5889 shares @ 45.7¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.4K
$-1.3K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
969 shares @ 60.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$547.48
$-37.03
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
3645 shares @ 36.3¢·now 8.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$314.94
$-1.0K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
1210 shares @ 34.4¢·now 25.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$308.54
$-107.95
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
2480 shares @ 68.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$285.25
$-1.4K
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1881 shares @ 52.8¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$279.30
$-713.68
- YES
Will Ford (F) beat quarterly earnings?
252 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$252.06
$72.92
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
270 shares @ 77.5¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$207.72
$-1.56
- YES
Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?
190 shares @ 76.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$189.91
$44.59
- YES
Will CoStar (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings?
199 shares @ 65.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$179.75
$49.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$4.80Jul 28, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.75Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?$35.00Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?$27.43Jul 28, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?$125.29Jul 28, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?$45.00Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?$92.33Jul 28, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?$29.00Jul 28, 13:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill JetBlue Airways (JBLU) beat quarterly earnings?$67.10Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$5.00Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$2.60Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$5.20Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$5.40Jul 27, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$11.20Jul 27, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.18Jul 27, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.02Jul 27, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.46Jul 27, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.00Jul 27, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.68Jul 27, 19:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
46 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $11.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 14:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.