0xe036e4b0440ab0ffe184ee819d96c16dfef955ee
0xe036e4b0440ab0ffe184ee819d96c16dfef955ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
159
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-663.19
Realised
$-62.42
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 159- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25?
905 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26?
495 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2?
443 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15?
320 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on February 18?
260 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 17?
253 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 10?
110 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on February 22?
107 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23?
107 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on February 16?
101 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$3.02Jun 19, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?$2.15Jun 18, 09:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17?$6.74Jun 18, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$8.66Jun 17, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19?$2.23Jun 17, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17?$1.47Jun 17, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19?$1.90Jun 17, 11:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$4.86Jun 16, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17?$1.37Jun 16, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16?$5.54Jun 16, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$0.66Jun 16, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$3.65Jun 16, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17?$0.63Jun 16, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?$3.14Jun 16, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$9.62Jun 15, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15?$5.39Jun 15, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.11Jun 15, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15?$0.67Jun 15, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14?$1.05Jun 14, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14?$0.37Jun 14, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 01:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 07:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.