Intentional-Anarchy
0xe03cbceab0b537fa01461574e38ba34801c2c61b
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-168.89
Realised
$-7.95
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 28?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 28?
475 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 28?
233 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?
208 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 25?
68 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 25?
44 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- NO
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
34 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
29 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 2?$0.06Jul 2, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 2?$0.38Jul 2, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 2?$8.00Jul 2, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on July 2?$1.04Jul 2, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$1.05Jul 2, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.30Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.66Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.05Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$3.10Jul 2, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?$7.31Jul 2, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?$3.55Jul 2, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 1?$6.55Jul 1, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?$14.01Jul 1, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 1?$5.06Jul 1, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?$0.08Jul 1, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 1?$1.83Jul 1, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?$0.08Jun 30, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?$1.04Jun 30, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?$1.01Jun 30, 09:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 08:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 07:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.