Celebrated-Challenge
0xe055257f722f55eea5223e60d8996c15c6a58df9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$161.04
Total PnL
$14.38
Realised
$106.41
Win rate
83%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?
11173 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$61.45
$33.62
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?
9403 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$37.61
$9.40
- YES
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in July?
2272 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$12.50
$10.23
- YES
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in July?
2029 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$11.16
$9.13
- YES
Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July?
2021 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$10.10
$8.08
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?
1068 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$6.41
$5.34
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?
329 shares @ 0.1¢·now 1.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.09
$4.76
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%?
7309 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$3.65
$-11.94
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in July?
1223 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$3.06
$1.83
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?
5673 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.84
$-9.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.0% in July?$1.00Jul 28, 21:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.0% in July?$1.00Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.9% in July?$1.00Jul 28, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.8% in July?$1.00Jul 28, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.7% in July?$1.00Jul 28, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.8% in July?$1.37Jul 28, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.7% in July?$1.45Jul 28, 14:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July?$2.00Jul 28, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July?$1.16Jul 28, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.1% in July?$0.93Jul 28, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.0% in July?$0.55Jul 28, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.9% in July?$2.97Jul 28, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.7% in July?$0.97Jul 28, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.8% in July?$1.33Jul 28, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July?$0.01Jul 27, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.1% in July?$0.01Jul 27, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.0% in July?$0.01Jul 27, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.9% in July?$0.01Jul 27, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.7% in July?$0.24Jul 27, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.8% in July?$0.79Jul 27, 15:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 13:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.