Gracious-Pickle
0xe0f399c6852c385c691b85e6105e02fc976d9fea
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$204.06
Total PnL
$-835.51
Realised
$1.28
Win rate
72%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?
200 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$199.90
$59.90
- OVER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$4.13
$3.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?
80 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.04
$-1.56
- OVER
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
2000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on April 23?
1296 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-31.40
- BIGETRON MY BY VIT
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO5) - MPL Malaysia Playoffs
1250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UNDER
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
1019 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.86
- 6TARGETS ESPORTS
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 1 Group Stage
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- CHEEKI_BREEKI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Cheeki_Breeki (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
734 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.13
- OVER
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
691 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.69
Recent activity
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$15.00Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.60Jul 28, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$10.00Jul 28, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$11.00Jul 28, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$4.51Jul 28, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$1.50Jul 28, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$5.99Jul 28, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$13.00Jul 28, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$7.00Jul 28, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$7.00Jul 28, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$0.25Jul 28, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$4.77Jul 28, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$1.00Jul 28, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$0.41Jul 28, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$2.60Jul 28, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$14.00Jul 28, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?$29.85Jul 28, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?$1.00Jul 28, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?$34.72Jul 28, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?$22.96Jul 28, 07:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
67/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
39 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 07:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.