Windy-Manatee
0xe11f030cf1e23dfc23fe28637da9a6de6eb988db
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.56
Total PnL
$-407.25
Realised
$4.30
Win rate
100%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
30 shares @ 0.2¢·now 1.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.38
$0.32
- YES
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?
20 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.33
$0.24
- YES
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 0.4¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.27
$0.18
- YES
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
50 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.17
$0.06
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.15
$0.05
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
20 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.15
$0.06
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
20 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.11
$0.02
- YES
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.10
- YES
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.10
$-0.04
- YES
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
50 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.07
$-0.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Dodi Lukebakio be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?$0.16Apr 16, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?$0.16Apr 14, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sunderland finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$0.07Apr 12, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ace Bailey win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$0.23Apr 3, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$1.50Mar 14, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$0.17Mar 11, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$0.05Mar 11, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$0.01Mar 11, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?$0.12Mar 6, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?$0.18Mar 5, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brentford finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$0.23Mar 4, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on March 2?$1.85Mar 2, 18:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill GTA 6 cost $100+?$0.00Mar 1, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?$0.22Feb 27, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?$0.94Feb 27, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?$1.83Feb 27, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 27?$2.64Feb 27, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?$5.79Feb 27, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?$0.77Feb 27, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 27?$1.60Feb 27, 18:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 15:36 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 16, 05:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.