Ill-Fated-Gosling
0xe1880096e270dead9411ab2cf49d3b33e6ffc1d0
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$391.26
Total PnL
$-34.75
Realised
$-0.68
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 17?
36 shares @ 26.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$13.37
$3.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 16?
16 shares @ 52.3¢·now 70.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$11.20
$2.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 16?
25 shares @ 53.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$11.13
$-2.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 17?
15 shares @ 60.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$10.67
$1.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?
25 shares @ 38.2¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$10.16
$0.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 17?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$10.13
$0.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 17?
15 shares @ 66.7¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$10.02
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 17?
20 shares @ 40.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$9.90
$1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?
24 shares @ 40.9¢·now 40.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$9.72
$-0.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 18?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.70
$0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 17?$1.55Aug 16, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 17?$1.65Aug 16, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 16?$15.08Aug 16, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 17?$2.56Aug 16, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?$2.16Aug 16, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 17?$2.56Aug 16, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?$1.65Aug 16, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 17?$3.31Aug 16, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 18?$1.65Aug 16, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 17?$3.31Aug 16, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 16?$9.90Aug 16, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 16?$0.01Aug 16, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 16?$19.79Aug 16, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?$1.96Aug 16, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?$1.96Aug 16, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?$1.65Aug 16, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 17?$2.16Aug 16, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?$1.71Aug 16, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 16?$0.79Aug 16, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on August 16?$1.57Aug 16, 13:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 11:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 14:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.