Optimistic-Rifle
0xe205a2b105746844e3fcc68b000218ca9051bc3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$30.75
Total PnL
$-205.66
Realised
$-47.74
Win rate
2%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?
57 shares @ 35.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$17.43
$-2.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?
20 shares @ 39.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$7.50
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?
13 shares @ 24.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$5.82
$2.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?
1100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 13?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 14?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28?
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?
114 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-47.80
- OVER
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5
44 shares @ 45.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 10?
40 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?$8.04Aug 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?$20.85Aug 15, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17?$3.14Aug 15, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?$9.85Aug 15, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 16?$10.22Aug 15, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?$43.88Aug 15, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?$20.60Aug 15, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?$1.06Aug 15, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?$11.17Aug 15, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?$20.82Aug 15, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?$1.43Aug 15, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?$0.58Aug 15, 01:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?$30.82Aug 15, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?$30.10Aug 15, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?$3.49Aug 15, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?$0.89Aug 15, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?$3.00Aug 15, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?$8.84Aug 15, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?$13.27Aug 15, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?$6.68Aug 15, 00:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
54 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $10.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 01:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 08:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.