Arid-Gale
0xe21571ed6b405937e2ee32d54d1df523dc3ba3d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$415.50
Total PnL
$-636.00
Realised
$-25.96
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
200 shares @ 78.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$180.00
$24.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
300 shares @ 33.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$120.00
$21.00
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$89.00
$6.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
34 shares @ 57.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$26.50
$7.26
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?
300 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-81.00
- NO
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?
300 shares @ 47.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-141.49
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27?
200 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-106.00
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
200 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-126.00
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?
200 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?
131 shares @ 78.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-102.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMAnthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?$50.00Jul 1, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?$200.00Jul 1, 19:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?$200.00Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$3.64Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$672.73Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?$250.00Jul 1, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$200.00Jun 24, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$160.00Jun 1, 17:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 in May?$30.00May 30, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?$200.00May 30, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in May?$500.00May 30, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?$305.00May 30, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?$300.00May 29, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?$27.96May 29, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in May?$70.36May 29, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in May?$43.69May 29, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in May?$7.69May 28, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?$172.90May 28, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?$24.70May 28, 02:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.84May 28, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $72.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 23:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 19:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.