Roasted-Child
0xe21a12550ed91067db382ab732f2c152bcda3292
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
70
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-131.99
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on March 7?
19511 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 4?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 3?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 5?
170 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8?
133 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 13?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 3?
99 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 15, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on March 15?$1.00Mar 15, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 15, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 15, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 15, 00:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 13?$1.20Mar 14, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13?$1.25Mar 14, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 14?$3.62Mar 14, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 16?$1.00Mar 13, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 15?$1.00Mar 13, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?$1.00Mar 13, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 14?$1.00Mar 13, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 14?$1.00Mar 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 14?$1.00Mar 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 14?$1.00Mar 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13?$1.00Mar 13, 23:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 7, 12:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.