Plain-Dispute
0xe2355d3b5869f2a6080275a8fda0ea13167e968a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.1K
Realised
$-58.26
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
2564 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
2036 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
1584 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-102.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
1001 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-27.42
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
917 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-107.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$2.04Jul 16, 15:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$2.02Jul 16, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$2.00Jul 16, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$2.04Jul 16, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$10.13Jul 16, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$6.76Jul 16, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.09Jul 16, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$11.90Jul 16, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$10.11Jul 16, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$5.19Jul 16, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$13.89Jul 16, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$10.20Jul 16, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$5.14Jul 16, 12:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$15.79Jul 16, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$15.05Jul 16, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$15.79Jul 16, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$10.03Jul 16, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$5.02Jul 16, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$11.71Jul 16, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.02Jul 16, 10:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $6.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 06:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 15:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.