Annual-Cirrus
0xe23760b2f161e1031ca3d43d54e9dee112589c8f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$65.72
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
15000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Canada win the 2025 IIHF World Championship?
2807 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2025$0.00
$-33.07
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
2100 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-198.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
1923 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Czechia win the 2025 IIHF World Championship?
1820 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2025$0.00
$-319.88
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
1705 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-126.89
- YES
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship?
1002 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- LAKERS
Lakers vs. Rockets
881 shares @ 42.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-377.27
- NO
Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?
706 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-218.64
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
333 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Rockets$70.11Apr 27, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Rockets$73.08Apr 27, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Rockets$75.68Apr 26, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYLakers vs. Rockets$158.40Apr 26, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?$1.13Jan 6, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 8-11?$11.00Nov 9, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?$43.64Oct 22, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?$100.00Oct 22, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO?$50.00Oct 22, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?$75.00Oct 22, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO?$100.00Oct 21, 10:52 UTC
- REDEEMOver $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?$129.73Oct 21, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?$94.00Oct 16, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?$9.20Oct 4, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?$0.40Oct 4, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLSPOLU wins 20% or more of vote in Czech election?$46.80Oct 4, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?$31.90Oct 4, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?$8.12Oct 4, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?$7.83Oct 4, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$5.00Sep 17, 18:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $42.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 12:54 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 00:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.