Ill-Fated-Larch
0xe2485a4a68aa9d1cad722491b874118b6e4d8621
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-150.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?$75.00Mar 3, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump cuts Ukraine aid before April?$75.00Mar 3, 13:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?$0.00Mar 3, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?$172.33Mar 3, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?$38.70Feb 27, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?$100.00Feb 27, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?$138.70Feb 27, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?$34.20Feb 25, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28?$100.00Feb 25, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?$11.35Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Union win the most seats in the next German election?$122.85Feb 24, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Union win the most seats in the next German election?$111.91Feb 1, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?$10.00Jan 27, 12:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $74.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 12:28 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 3, 13:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.