Alarming-Shape
0xe253f7061d0302fdf0b89a7b9a4147336c58638d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-571.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?
5510 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-16.53
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
4750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
2222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?
1083 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
892 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- AURORA GAMING
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner
880 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-94.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?$20.56Jun 13, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$47.00May 29, 17:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 10, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$20.00May 9, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30?$20.55Apr 30, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$5.00Apr 27, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$3.00Apr 27, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$5.00Apr 27, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$5.00Apr 27, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rayan Cherki break the Premier League assists record?$5.45Mar 2, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$5.65Feb 28, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$0.99Feb 28, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$69.26Feb 28, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$4.00Feb 6, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?$4.00Feb 6, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner$6.00Feb 6, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner$8.00Feb 6, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner$40.00Feb 6, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner$40.00Feb 6, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$5.46Jan 28, 10:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $14.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 30, 18:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 09:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.