Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-17.5K

Realised

$-537.86

Win rate

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 30

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
7055 shares @ 56.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-4.0K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
3900 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.2K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
3870 shares @ 51.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.0K
OVER
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
3846 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.0K
YES
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?
2778 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
YES
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain?
2500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
2236 shares @ 44.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1000.00
YES
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?
2222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
OVER
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
2001 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-887.46

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$5.97Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$54.23Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 07:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$71.23Jul 20, 07:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$75.99Jul 20, 07:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$117.84Jul 20, 07:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$114.46Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$514.93Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$414.93Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$280.08Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$7.93Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$2.58Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$17.00Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$0.52Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$6.46Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$0.52Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$5.33Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$4.12Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$8.52Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$0.64Jul 20, 07:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry60 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $40.36
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 20, 07:31 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:37:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data